‘Low-trust’ ties: What’s next for Pakistan, Iran after tit-for-tat attacks?

The neighbours appear to be de-escalating tensions but their border security concerns will have deepened, say analysts

Islamabad, Pakistan – Pakistan and Iran have agreed to de-escalate tensions after tit-for-tat military strikes on each other’s territory this week, but the episode reveals a lack of trust between the neighbours that will continue to plague relations even after the missiles and accusations have subsided, say analysts.

On Friday evening Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Jalil Abbas Jilani spoke to his Iranian counterpart Hossein Amirabdollahian. “The two foreign ministers agreed that working level cooperation and close coordination on counter terrorism and other aspects of mutual concern should be strengthened. They also agreed to de-escalate the situation,” a Pakistan foreign ministry statement read.

Late on Tuesday, Iran had conducted missile and drone strikes in Pakistan’s Balochistan province, killing at least two children and injuring three. Tehran said the rare border intrusion targeted Jaish al-Adl, a Sunni Muslim armed group accused of attacks inside the Iranian territory of Sistan-Baluchestan.

In fewer than 48 hours, Pakistan responded with “precise” military strikes that killed at least nine people, including four children and three women. Iranian media reports, quoting state officials, said those killed were “non-Iranians”, implying they could have been Pakistani nationals.

The rare military actions between the two countries threatened to escalate into a broader conflict in a region already on edge over Israel’s more than three-month war in the Gaza Strip.