Liberal government set to miss 2030 emissions targets, says environment commissioner audit

The federal government is set to miss its 2030 target to cut carbon emissions by at least 40 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030, according to the latest audit from the commissioner of the environment's office. 

The commissioner's fall reports looked at five key areas: the government's fleet of zero-emissions vehicles, construction of charging stations, monitoring the catch of marine fisheries, the status of environmental petitions presented to Parliament and the government's progress on reducing emissions.

The report painted a grim picture of emission reductions in Canada over the last 20 years, saying that the only significant drops in emissions came during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, which had little to do with emissions reduction policy. 

The audit looked at the Liberal government's 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan, published in March 2022, which details measures being taken to meet the Paris Accord commitment by cutting emissions 40 to 45 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030.

The report by Jerry DeMarco, commissioner of the Environment and Sustainable Development, looked at whether the plan was credible, inclusive and resulted in measures that will help Canada meet its targets. 

"While the 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan included important mitigation measures to reduce emissions, some of these measures, such as the Oil and Gas Emissions Cap and the Clean Fuel Regulations, have been delayed," the audit said. 

"We found that the measures most critical for reducing emissions had not been identified or prioritized," it added.

DeMarco's audit said the Liberal government later cut its projections for how much emissions it would reduce, first to 36.4 per cent, and then again to 34 per cent, below 2005 levels.

"Although this would be a significant achievement and change in trajectory for Canada's emissions, it falls short of Canada's commitment to reducing emissions to 40 per cent to 45 per cent below the 2005 level by 2030," the audit said.

The report said some of the measures in the 2030 plan lacked timetables that specified when those measures would be implemented. The audit said it had expected to find specific targets for how much each of the measures it implemented would cut emissions, but found there were no targets for 95 per cent of those measures. 

"Without expected emission reductions transparently available in the plan, it is not possible to know which of the mitigation measures to reduce emissions were key," the audit said, adding that information is vital "so that Canadians and parliamentarians can hold the government to account for its commitments."

The audit also criticized the modelling used to predict emissions in the plan, saying they were based on "overly optimistic assumptions, limited analysis of uncertainties and lack of peer review."

"The need for high-quality modelling is all the more important given that there has been no sustained downward trend in Canada's emissions since 2005," the report said. 

The audit found that there were significant delays in the implementation of emission reduction measures, with less than half of the measures having no completion deadline.