Leaders worry about Manitoba's economy as hopes for high immigration numbers unravel

This story is part of Welcome to Canada, a CBC News series about immigration told through the eyes of the people who have experienced it.

Cheryl Digby was touring a string of prospective immigrants through her sewing factory in southern Manitoba, when one guest left her surprised.

Lasitha Pathirana, a Sri Lankan looking to immigrate to Morden, Man., picked up a piece of fabric and identified the weave instantly. He spoke about the right materials to protect the wearer from fires, and he knew the names of her company's suppliers.

"There was a moment when I realized that this guy that's touring our factory knows as much or more than I do about flame-resistant textiles," Digby said.

It turns out Pathirana was managing a similar factory in his home country and then, in the spring of 2023, he was on the floor of a sewing factory, specializing in flame-resistant workwear, he found while on an exploratory visit to Morden. He hoped this job was his ticket to permanent residency in Canada.

"I think it all came as God's gift," Pathirana, now operations manager at that Morden factory, said. "I strongly believe that."

Stories of newcomers filling critical job shortages are about to become more rare in Manitoba, and the impacts on the province's economy will have far-reaching implications.

The federal Liberal government is clamping down on the country's immigrant admission targets across all streams — ranging from permanent residents to international students and foreign workers — because it says it wants to ease the housing crisis that's largely afflicting Canada's largest cities.

It's also pausing new sponsorship applications for parents and grandparents, as well as refugees. 

While these cutbacks are unfolding, Manitoba has been lobbying the federal government for an exemption so it can bring in more immigrants, not fewer. The province said newcomers are needed to fill vacancies in some industries, including manufacturing and agriculture.

But it seems those concerns were dismissed.

Ottawa cut the provincial nominee program — a popular Manitoba immigration stream — in half, igniting worries the province's economy will be harmed without the arrival of potentially thousands of newcomers who would have filled jobs.

Lori Wilkinson, a University of Manitoba sociology professor who is the Canada Research Chair in migrant futures, said the federal Liberals' decision is short-sighted. 

"Our reality is that we can absorb more newcomers than we used to, and now, at a time when we need more newcomers, we're being told to cut back," she said.