La Niña has returned, but isn't expected to hit the Prairies as hard this time around
CBC
La Niña has entered the building.
Or it's knocking at the door, at least.
The global weather phenomenon — typically known for producing colder, snowier than average winters on the Prairies — has been absent since early 2023, when it ended a rare three-year run.
But it's expected to arrive again soon, with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicting a 59 per cent chance it will develop by the end of January.
La Niña's opposite weather pattern, El Niño, dominated the climate picture through much of 2023 until its dissipation this past May. Known for making Prairie winters warmer and drier than normal, El Niño did just that — and made 2023 Earth's warmest year in 174 trips around the sun.
Danielle Desjardins, a meteorologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), said this La Niña event likely won't will match that intensity.
"We're not gonna see, necessarily, the typical correlations between the colder and snowier winter and the La Niña signal," Desjardins said.
That doesn't mean it won't be cold and snowy at times, she said. Many parts of the Prairies have already seen significant snowfall and cold snaps through the fall.
But ECCC's December, January and February combined temperature outlook shows much of the country is expected to be warmer than normal.
And La Niña shouldn't last long.
"All the models are showing that we're going to be trending toward a neutral signal again by the springtime," Desjardins said.
NOAA is predicting a 61 per cent chance the neutral phase will begin between March and May.
La Niña and El Niño are the result of changing sea surface temperatures in a region of the Pacific Ocean near the equator, off the coasts of Ecuador and Peru.
El Niño forms when those sea surface temperatures are higher than average, while La Niña forms from lower than average temperatures. The more above of below average, the stronger the event.
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