Jason Kenney, Scott Moe face similar COVID-19 crises, but different political pressure

Longtime political allies Jason Kenney and Scott Moe, the premiers of Alberta and Saskatchewan, respectively, are facing nearly identical health-care crises, but only one is facing a leadership review.

Kenney's handling of the fourth wave of COVID-19, which has hit Alberta harder than other provinces, has led to questions about his future as premier.

He met on Wednesday with his United Conservative Party caucus, with his political future said to be in the balance. Kenney emerged from the meeting without seeing a non-confidence motion, but a party leadership review will take place this spring. 

Saskatchewan is experiencing a similar crisis — averaging 279 new cases per 100,000 people over the past seven days, to Alberta's 253, as of Friday. (For comparison, Ontario is averaging 32 cases per 100,000.)

Saskatchewan also has the lowest vaccination rates among all provinces, with 72 per cent, and on Friday reported a record 276 people in hospital and 61 in intensive care units. Alberta also set a record for COVID-19 patients in ICU on Friday with 243.

The difference between the situations for Kenney and Moe, according to political analysts, is that Alberta's premier faces threats within his party and decidedly lower approval ratings.

Moe led his party to a convincing re-election last October, garnering more than 60 per cent of the vote, while Kenney faces a viable threat in former premier Rachel Notley and the NDP in Alberta's next planned election in 2023.