Japan's LDP picks new leader to replace outgoing PM Kishida

Japan's ruling party faces a historic leadership contest with potential for the youngest or first female premier.

Japan's ruling party will hold one of the most unpredictable leadership contests in decades on Friday (September 27, 2024), a race that could result in Japan's youngest or first female Premier, or see a popular veteran succeed in his fifth and final leadership bid.

The scramble to replace current Premier Fumio Kishida was sparked in August when he announced his intention to step down over a series of scandals that plunged the Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) ratings to record lows.

Polls suggest three candidates have the edge in a record nine-strong field: ex-Environment Minister and heir to a political dynasty Shinjiro Koizumi, 43; Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi, 63; and former Defence Minister Shigeru Ishiba, 67.

Whoever is chosen must quell anger at home over rising living costs and navigate a volatile security environment in East Asia fuelled by an increasingly assertive China and nuclear-armed North Korea.

The LDP, which has ruled Japan for almost all of the post-war era and has a majority in parliament, must hold a general election by October 2025. If Mr. Koizumi wins, he has pledged to hold a snap election that could come as early as next month.

"It's safe to assume that Mr. Ishiba, Ms. Takaichi, and Mr. Koizumi will do quite well, but I really cannot say who out of those three will win the race," said Yu Uchiyama, a professor of politics at Tokyo University.

"I don't think we'll know until the very last moment."