It's still 'the economy, stupid'? How the rich moved to Harris, the rest elected Trump

In the aftermath of the U.S. election this week, there was a sudden spike in online searches for an old political quote: "It's the economy, stupid." 

That generation-old rallying cry from Bill Clinton's senior strategist enjoyed renewed notoriety amid attempts to diagnose what just happened in this ground-rattling vote.

In the lead-up to the election, many media stories focused on demographic groups: Latino voters, young men, Black men, suburban college-educated women. 

But Donald Trump wound up doing so well, with so many groups, that one aberration in the exit polls now stands out as truly striking: class. 

Kamala Harris did well — historically well — with the richest voters: households earning over $100,000 US, who, unlike the rest of the electorate, shifted left.

The problem for her? They barely comprise one-third of the electorate. Trump gained among the rest, surfing to a staggering 20-point improvement among households earning $50,000 US to $100,000 US versus the last election.

It barely seemed to matter that macroeconomic indicators are good: Wages are up, inflation is down, interest rates are coming down, and the U.S. has achieved the elusive soft landing economists dreamed of.

Americans' view of the economy remains weak. Housing remains historically unaffordable, and until last year people's purchasing power had been declining or had flattened.

And that's where economics intersects with demographics.

It so happens that Latinos are disproportionately working class, and, at an average age of 30, entering prime home-buying years in an era of eye-watering prices.

These themes came up repeatedly in conversation with Latino voters, who spoke about the punishing shutdowns during the pandemic, the painful recovery and the sense that the incumbent Democrats were somehow to blame.

That's why one Latino organizer for the Republican Party confidently predicted Trump would approach or surpass George W. Bush's party record of 44 per cent of the Latino vote, which may have happened.

"The most important issues in this election are: The economy No. 1, the economy No. 2, the economy No. 3," said Jimmy Zumba, the organizer, in an interview in Allentown, Pa., before the election.

"Everybody knows the value of money."