Is Burkina Faso on the cusp of another coup?

Worsening insecurity in the country is fuelling rumours of dissent against Burkina Faso’s military government.

Recent shootings, first at the presidential palace, and then, at the site of a public broadcaster, in capital Ouagadougou, are fuelling suggestions that Burkina Faso may be edging towards another mutiny, amid a growing security crisis in the country.

Military leader Captain Ibrahim Traore, – or “IB” as he is called locally – promised to secure the fighting-ravaged West African country, hold elections, and expedite the country’s transition to democracy when he first seized power in a coup in 2022. That coup followed earlier military takeovers in neighbouring Mali and Guinea.

However, in early June, Traore announced a five-year extension of the transition, citing continuing insecurity in the country’s northeast regions, where the military is battling two armed groups that now control nearly half of Burkina Faso. Critics have accused Traore of using the security challenges to try to extend his hold on power.

But recent events have prompted questions over his control, and what the Burkinabe government might do to fend off any internal threats, say analysts.

Amid intense fighting in the country’s ongoing battles with armed groups linked to al-Qaeda and ISIL (ISIS), an analyst in Ouagadougou who requested anonymity said a devastating loss for Burkinabe troops in June has amplified feelings of dissatisfaction in the army towards Traore’s government.