Iran, Israel and the potential for miscalculation

Even if all parties involved don’t want an all-out war, history shows that it can still happen.

The Middle East has been waiting with bated breath for Israel’s response to Iran’s attack last weekend as the spectre of regional conflict seems closer than ever.

That spectre has waxed and waned since the war on Gaza began in October with the fear that it would spiral into a regional war, dragging in Iran and its allies as well as Western countries such as the United States.

In the six months that have followed, there has been violence in the wider Middle East with tit-for-tat attacks between Israel and Iran-backed forces, primarily the Lebanese group Hezbollah.

These attacks have followed a regular pattern with each violent incident marking a slow climb up a rung of the escalation ladder.

Missiles and drones are fired deeper and deeper into Lebanon and Israel, but each side takes a degree of care to increase those distances incrementally and choose targets carefully.