India’s real GDP expected to rise 6.4% in FY25

India's real GDP expected to rise 6.4% in 2024-25, with sectors like agriculture and public administration showing growth.

India’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to rise 6.4% in this financial year, slowing from 8.2% in 2023-24, the National Statistics Office (NSO) said on Tuesday (January 7, 2025) in its first advance estimates of GDP for 2024-25. GDP growth slowed to 6% in the first half of this financial year.

The real Gross Value Added (GVA) in the Indian economy is reckoned to rise 6.4% as well, relative to a 7.2% uptick in 2023-24, with Agriculture GVA growth surging to 3.8% from 1.4% last year.

Apart from agriculture, the only other sector expected to record an improvement in GVA growth this year is Public Administration, Defence and Other Services, which the NSO said will rise 9.1% from 7.8% last year.

Manufacturing GVA growth is expected to nearly halve from 9.9% in 2023-24 to 5.3% this year, while GVA in Mining and Quarrying is estimated to rise just 2.9% from 7.1% a year ago.

Construction GVA growth is pegged at 8.6%, from 9.9% in 2023-24 and another key employment-generating sector - Trade, Hotels, Communication and Services related to Broadcasting - is estimated to grow 5.8% as opposed to 6.4% last year.

“Real GDP or GDP at Constant Prices is estimated to attain a level of ₹184.88 lakh crore in the financial year 2024-25, against the Provisional Estimate of GDP for the year 2023-24 of ₹173.82 lakh crore,” the NSO said.

On the expenditure side, private final consumption spends are expected to expand 7.3% from 4% in 2023-24, while government final consumption expenditure is seen rising 4.1% from 2.5% last year.