India likely to see normal monsoon for 4th year on trot

he country had received normal rainfall during the four-month southwest monsoon season in 2019, 2020 and 2021

India is likely to witness normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season this year with favourable La Nina conditions predicted to continue during the June-September period, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Thursday.

The country had received normal rainfall during the four-month southwest monsoon season in 2019, 2020 and 2021.

The rainfall during the southwest monsoon season in 2022 will be 96% to 104% of the Long Period Average (LPA) of 87 cm of the 1971-2020 period, the IMD said.

Earlier, the IMD used to consider the LPA of 88 cm of the 1961-2010 period.  Quantitatively, the June to September monsoonal rainfall is likely to be 99% of the LPA with a margin error of 5%, it said.

The Met office predicted that there is a 40% probability of 'normal' rainfall, 15% probability of 'above normal' (104% to 110% of LPA) and 5% probability of 'excess' rainfall (more than 110% of LPA).

There is a 26% probability of 'below-normal' rainfall (90% to 96% of LPA) and a 14% chance of 'deficient' rainfall (less than 90% of LPA).

Normal to above-normal rainfall is most likely over many areas in the northern part of peninsular India, central India, along the foothills of the Himalayas and some parts of northwest India.