In an era of drought, can B.C. rely on Site C and other hydro projects?

After dozens of years of on-again, off-again planning and almost a decade of construction, a single, giant turbine in British Columbia's massive Site C dam will finally start generating its first watts of electricity later this year.

By the fall of 2025, when all six turbines are expected to be online, the $16 billion mega project that straddles the Peace River in northeast B.C. will churn out 5,100 gigawatt hours of energy per year.

Stated in real-world terms, that's an eight per cent boost to the existing provincial grid, providing enough energy to power almost half a million homes.

"It's coming on just at the right time for the province, both from the demand side and the whole push for electrification, which means that we need more power in the system," said B.C. Hydro Site C construction manager Chris Waite during a tour.

The scale of the megaproject is breathtaking. Behind the one-kilometre earth dam, water being captured will soon turn into an 80-kilometre-long reservoir of stored kinetic power. 

But even at full output, Site C will only satisfy a portion of B.C.'s near-future electricity needs, with demand expected to increase by 15 per cent or more by 2030, mostly due to population growth.

B.C. currently gets over 90 per cent of its total power from hydro generation. But in the age of climate change, diminished snowpacks and multi-year droughts, some are questioning the reliability of the province's once-abundant water supply.

The issue was raised in a 2023 report by the independent North American Electric Reliability Corporation that said B.C. could be in an energy shortfall as early as 2026 due to risks "associated with extreme weather conditions that cause periods of above-normal demand to coincide with lower-than-normal resource output."

"I think the bigger question rather than us running out of electricity is whether we're going to be able to afford all of the electricity that we need," said Margareta Dovgal, managing director of nonprofit Resource Works.

"And there are moments in time where all of our partners have massive electricity needs. They're not able to sell to us. Or if they can sell to us, it's at very high costs." 

The International Energy Agency noted that Canada's total hydroelectric generation declined in 2023 to the lowest level in more than a decade. 

And this year, B.C. has imported 20 per cent of its power from neighbouring provinces or states at a cost of close to half a billion dollars, despite being a net exporter of power in the years before.

Josie Osborne, B.C.'s minister of energy and mines, says the province is looking for hydro alternatives to address potential drought impacts, pointing to a callout for renewable energy proposals issued in April of this year.

"Although B.C. Hydro is already accommodating climate change in its long-term forecasts, we know that diversifying our energy sources is really important," she said.