IMF warns of higher recession risk and darker global outlook

The International Monetary Fund is once again lowering its projections for global economic growth in 2023

Two principal economists painted very different pictures on Thursday of what the global economy will look like in the coming years.

Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, told an audience at Georgetown University on Thursday that the IMF is once again lowering its projections for global economic growth in 2023, projecting world economic growth lower by $4 trillion through 2026.

"Things are more likely to get worse before it gets better," she said, adding that the Russian invasion of Ukraine that began in February has dramatically changed the IMF's outlook on the economy. “The risks of recession are rising,” she said, calling the current economic environment a “period of historic fragility.”

Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, on the other side of town at the Center for Global Development, focused on how the U.S. and its allies could contribute to making longer-term investments to the global economy.

She called for ambitious policy solutions and didn't use the word “recession” once. But despite Yellen's more measured view, she said “the global economy faces significant uncertainty.”

The war in Ukraine has driven up food and energy prices globally — in some places exponentially — with Russia, a key global energy and fertilizer supplier, sharply escalating the conflict and exposing the vulnerabilities to the global food and energy supply.

Additionally, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, rising inflation and worsening climate conditions are also impacting world economies and exacerbating other crises, like high debt levels held by lower-income countries.