IMF slashes U.S., global growth forecast in the wake of Trump tariffs

IMF slashes global growth forecast due to Trump's tariffs, warns of increased risks and urges countries to negotiate.

The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday (Aprill 22, 2025) slashed its forecast for global growth this year, citing the effect of U.S. President Donald Trump’s new tariff policies on the world economy.

The IMF’s projections, which incorporate some but not all tariff measures introduced this year, see the global economy growing by 2.8% this year, 0.5 percentage points lower than the previous World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast in January.

Global growth is then forecast to hit 3% next year, down 0.3 percentage points from January.

“We are entering a new era as the global economic system that has operated for the last 80 years is being reset,” IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told journalists ahead of the report’s publication.

“The risks to the global economy have increased and are firmly to the downside,” he added, noting that the recent U.S. tariff announcements had more than halved the Fund’s outlook for global trade growth this year.

The WEO was published as global financial leaders gathered in Washington for the World Bank and IMF Spring Meetings, which are hosted by the two international financial institutions at their headquarters a stone’s throw from the White House.

Given the stop-start nature to Trump’s tariff rollout, the IMF introduced a cutoff date of April 4, meaning they do not include the administration’s latest salvos, which have hiked the level of new levies against China to 145%.