If we’re going to label AI an ‘extinction risk’, we need to clarify how it could happen Premium

Will artificial intelligence lead to the extinction of human civilisation? A scientists specialising in AI technology explains.

This week a group of well-known and reputable AI researchers signed a statement consisting of 22 words:

As a professor of AI, I am also in favour of reducing any risk, and prepared to work on it personally. But any statement worded in such a way is bound to create alarm, so its authors should probably be more specific and clarify their concerns.

As defined by Encyclopedia Britannica, extinction is “the dying out or extermination of a species”. I have met many of the statement’s signatories, who are among the most reputable and solid scientists in the field – and they certainly mean well. However, they have given us no tangible scenario for how such an extreme event might occur.

Explained | Are safeguards needed to make AI systems safe? 

It is not the first time we have been in this position. On March 22 this year, a petition signed by a different set of entrepreneurs and researchers requested a pause in AI deployment of six months. In the petition, on the website of the Future of Life Institute, they set out as their reasoning: “Profound risks to society and humanity, as shown by extensive research and acknowledged by top AI labs” – and accompanied their request with a list of rhetorical questions:

It is certainly true that, along with many benefits, this technology comes with risks that we need to take seriously. But none of the aforementioned scenarios seem to outline a specific pathway to extinction. This means we are left with a generic sense of alarm, without any possible actions we can take.

The website of the Centre for AI Safety, where the latest statement appeared, outlines in a separate section eight broad risk categories. These include the “weaponisation” of AI, its use to manipulate the news system, the possibility of humans eventually becoming unable to self-govern, the facilitation of oppressive regimes, and so on.