How the U.S. midterm elections might change the conversation between Ottawa and Washington

While the U.S. midterm elections could change the political landscape in Washington, experts say they're unlikely to have much of an impact on Canada-U.S. relations — although they could shift the discussion on some key issues.

The midterms elect one-third of the U.S. Senate and the entire House of Representatives, both of which are currently under Democratic control.

Election forecasters view Republicans as overwhelming favourites to win back the House of Representatives and, increasingly, as slight favourites for regaining the Senate.

But no matter which party holds the balance of power in Congress after the votes are counted, any shift in power will have little impact on relations between Washington and Ottawa.

"There really isn't a partisan divide on Canada," said Chris Sands, head of the Canada Institute at the Wilson Center, a Washington-based think tank.

"The desire for good relations with Canada and to work things out and to occasionally have a serious conversation … is pretty consistent and ... the composition of the Congress won't likely change that."

Maryscott Greenwood, head of the Canadian-American Business Council, pointed out that the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement trade pact, referred to in Canada as CUSMA, was ratified with a Republican in the White House and a House of Representatives controlled by Democrats.

"No matter what happens, there will be a lot of new faces in Congress and it's incumbent upon Canada … to introduce the Canadian American relationship to these new members," Greenwood said.

But both Sands and Greenwood said a number of critical issues will be the focus of the Canada-U.S. relationship going forward — regardless of which party has control of Congress.

Like Canada, the U.S. has been grappling with record-high inflation over the past year. Polls have cited the cost of living as a top priority for American voters.

Central banks in both countries have hiked interest rates in recent months in an attempt to get inflation under control. But those hikes also have been slowing economic activity, leading many economists to predict a recession sometime in 2023.

Due to the ties between the U.S. and Canadian economies, collaboration on economic issues will be crucial in the coming years, Greenwood said.

"How do we make sure that inflation doesn't go bananas? How do we make sure that people are employed? And that is not an easy task," she said. "There are ways for Canada [and] the United States to collaborate on the economy that could help soften the blow."

The U.S. recently passed the Inflation Reduction Act, which includes hundreds of millions of dollars to jump-start a new domestic industry manufacturing components for electric-vehicle batteries.