How the pandemic might affect voter turnout, and Ford's chances in June

Love him or hate him, Doug Ford energizes voters. His presence on the ballot seems to boost voter turnout — which hit a two-decade high when he was elected Ontario's premier in 2018. 

Fifty-eight per cent of eligible voters showed up last time, with the Progressive Conservatives taking just over 40 per cent of their votes.

Ford's populist style, like that of his late brother, Rob Ford, seemingly brought out new voters and sent him to Queen's Park. 

"What a Ford does is, because they're so provocative, because they are able to garner significant media attention, they stand out from the crowd," said York University political scientist Dennis Pilon. 

Will something similar happen on June 2, keeping him in office? Experts are hesitant to make predictions, but suggest Ontarians are as likely to show up in high numbers for this election as they were four years ago.

Both times Ford has run for a top job — Ontario premier in 2018, Toronto mayor in 2014 — voters showed up in higher numbers than over the past two decades, though he lost the latter race. 

Pilon says these figures are more than just chance and tell us something about the power he might have to get people to show up to the polls.

Ford's populism has attracted those who might previously have been non-voters, says Pilon. At the same time, he didn't seem to lose a lot of traditional Conservative voters in the last election. 

Fords "give people an ability to participate … whether they're right or wrong, they go, 'I know that guy, I got a sense of what he stands for.'" 

University of Toronto political scientist Randy Besco says Ford had an advantage of coming from a political family with an established brand; his brother was mayor of Toronto, his father, Doug Ford Sr., was an MPP and he himself served as a Toronto city councillor.

"People already know about Doug Ford. They already have formed their opinions of him. And when he starts campaigning, there's not going to be a big surprise," said Besco.

Four years ago, many were voting to toss the Liberals and saw a clear alternative, says Pilon.

This time, "what's going to be crucial is the opposition to Ford," he said — whether people, in particular after two years of the pandemic, are similarly unhappy with his PCs.

The provincial NDP and Liberal leaders, Andrea Horwath and Steven Del Duca, are certainly hoping so — despite the Tories' encouraging poll numbers, which are consistently in the high 30s.