How Israel responds to Iranian missile strikes could reshape politics of the region

The almost 200 long-range and ballistic rockets fired at Israel by Iran's regime Tuesday night took just 12 minutes or so to cross the desert separating the two arch-enemies, but the implications of the strike will likely be felt for years. 

Faced with humiliating losses that Israel inflicted on their closest proxy, Hezbollah, and with hope of a ceasefire in Lebanon and Gaza exhausted, it appears Iran's Islamic rulers decided confronting Israel directly was their least-worst option. 

"This is a dangerous gamble here," Sanam Vakil, a Middle East analyst with Chatham House in London, told BBC Radio's Today program in the aftermath of the strikes. 

"Iran recognized that without trying to inflict damage and restore some deterrence, it would continue to get hit by Israel, and that's what it is trying to achieve here."

The decimation or debilitation of its key proxies — Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and the Houthis in Yemen — means Iran's capability to project its influence in the Middle East, and of confronting the West and Israel, has been dealt a crushing blow. 

This was the second time in the past six months that Iran launched salvos of rockets at Israel, but unlike the previous strikes in April, these attacks appeared designed to cause maximum damage.

Rather than preceding the main strikes with slow-moving, easily intercepted drones, on Tuesday night, Iran used some of  the most advanced ballistic missiles in its inventory, aiming at three Israeli military installations: military bases at Nevatim, Hatzerim and Tel Nof as well as the headquarters of Mossad, Israel's intelligence service, in Tel Aviv. 

Civilian buildings and neighbourhoods were not targeted, said Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araqch.

"Our action is concluded unless the Israeli regime decides to invite further retaliation. In that scenario, our response will be stronger and more powerful," Araqchi said in a post on X early on Wednesday,  

He said Iran only took the action, "[after] exercising tremendous restraint for almost two months, to give space for a ceasefire in Gaza." 

While it appears civilian casualties on the ground were few, a 37-year-old Palestinian labourer was killed near Jericho by falling shrapnel from Iranian missiles or Israeli interceptors.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu characterised Iran's move as "a big mistake" with an Israeli response in the hours or days ahead a virtual certainty. 

The implications of that response will be felt around the world, says Ahron Bregman, an Israeli military analyst and senior teaching fellow at King's College London.

"The Israelis are hinting it will be something that will surprise the Iranians and surprise the world, and when I think of potential targets, what comes to mind is their oil refineries, which will have an impact on the Middle East but [also] on the world economy, and which would see oil prices rocketing," said Bregman in an interview on France24.