How climate change will affect Thunder Bay and what's being done about it

Weather in Thunder Bay, Ont., will grow warmer, wetter and less predictable over the next 30 years, and that will affect everything from our risk from floods and forest fires to food prices, and mental and physical health, experts say.

But, they say, there is much that can be done at a local level to mitigate those effects and prevent further warming.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released its latest report on Feb. 28, cataloguing how humans and the natural world are being affected by the changing climate and how they can adapt.  

It found North American cities are already facing more frequent and severe "climate-induced hazards" and extreme events, such as severe storms. 

Climate data compiled on the Prairie Climate Centre's Climate Atlas of Canada suggests the average temperature in Thunder Bay in July will warm by approximately two degrees by 2050, while the average temperature in January will warm by approximately 2½ degrees. The frost-free season will grow by more than 20 days, and the city will receive an average of around 40 millimetres more rainfall per year. 

While the promise of warmer days and a longer growing season may sound positive to some, the City of Thunder Bay's climate adaptation co-ordinator said the problem is one of unpredictability. 

"Even though weather in general is getting warmer, that is just meaning that there's more energy in the atmosphere," Jacob Porter said. 

"So that can end up resulting in higher amounts of water stored so we get larger winter storms. However, it can also mean that … an Arctic air mass is pushed over the city in times we are not expecting cold weather."

Severe weather events could overwhelm city infrastructure, such as storm water systems and sewer lines, Porter said.  

It could lead to flooding and pooling of water throughout the city.

And severe weather events, whether local or in other parts of the world, could ruin crops and lead to food shortages that further drive up the price of food, he said. 

Other impacts on the city relate to the costs of hosting increasing numbers of people needing to evacuate surrounding communities due to floods and wildfires, he added — and to the increased risk of Lyme disease related to an expanding black-legged tick population. 

The City of Thunder Bay can take action to mitigate the effects of climate change, Porter said. 

The city has been upgrading its storm-water management systems and building what are known as low-impact developments, he said.