How Canada can avoid past mistakes as COVID-19 restrictions lift

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Canada is entering a new phase of the pandemic as restrictions are set to ease across much of the country. But avoiding the mistakes of the past and keeping the public onside will be extremely challenging as Omicron continues to hammer our health-care system.

Ontario, Alberta and Manitoba pushed aggressively to reopen last February when the highly transmissible Alpha and Beta variants were taking off, setting the stage for a devastating third wave that led to months of reimposed restrictions in hard-hit regions.

A year later, many provinces are again forging ahead with reopening plans in the face of an even more devastating variant, while setting somewhat ambitious end dates at a time when record-high hospitalizations have just begun to show signs of peaking.

While our protection from vaccinations and prior infections may put us in a better position, infectious disease experts say Canada should take a cautious approach to reopening to avoid falling into the same traps of previous waves. 

British Columbia and Ontario will begin easing limits on indoor gatherings, gyms, bars, restaurants and other venues on Monday, while Manitoba announced Friday it will extend its measures for at least another week and Quebec remains weeks away from reopening. 

And while Alberta is waiting until hospitalization rates drop before beginning to lift its restrictions, Premier Jason Kenney joined Ontario Premier Doug Ford this week in boldly predicting the lifting of all COVID-19 public health measures by mid-March. 

But if the last two years of the pandemic have taught us anything, it's that the virus doesn't work on our schedule. And while we may feel like we're done with COVID-19, it's not necessarily done with us.

WATCH | Ontario steps toward gradual reopening as officials warn pandemic isn't over:

A subvariant of Omicron known as BA.2 is showing early signs of spread in Canada, with more than 100 cases detected to date. Denmark's leading public health institute found it could be 1.5 times more infectious — highlighting the threat of the rapidly mutating virus.

"The greatest opportunity for mutations and variants to arise is when you get lots of transmission events and the virus has got opportunities to replicate itself more," said Dr. Susy Hota, an infectious disease specialist at the University Health Network in Toronto. 

"So it's kind of this awful cycle that you get stuck in, where you have these massive surges of, say, Omicron this time around that hit so many people, and that allows for further mutations to happen and then from that may arise additional variants in the future."

Hota said that while BA.2 remains at low levels in Canada right now, it's important to keep an eye on its spread in other countries and ramp up our tracking efforts here, in order to make sure we detect the subvariant quickly and are prepared for further spread.

"This is a chess game — we make a move, and it makes a move, and then we make a move," said Dr. Lynora Saxinger, an infectious diseases physician and associate professor at the University of Alberta in Edmonton.