Housing prices are ‘conundrum’ for Bank of Canada, National Bank’s Marion says

Canadian house prices that remain elevated due to record population growth — but despite restrictive monetary policy — complicate the Bank of Canada’s inflation fight, a top economist said.

Canada’s annual gains of 1 million residents last year and in 2023, which is the equivalent of the U.S. adding 20 million people over that two-year period, worsen housing deficits and keep shelter prices and inflation high, according to Stefane Marion, chief economist and strategist at National Bank of Canada.

High housing prices and inflation mean the Bank of Canada will likely only be able to cut interest rates by a “modest” 100 basis points in 2024, from five per cent currently, because keeping price gains below three per cent “will be a challenge,” Marion said Wednesday at the Bloomberg Canadian Finance Conference. 

“Home prices are stickier, and that’s a conundrum for the central bank because they were assuming that with higher rates home prices will actually come down,” Marion said. “Population growth is good down the road, but the capacity constraint pushes inflation higher.”