Housing developers say they can't keep up with population growth in N.S. without big changes

This story is part of an ongoing CBC Nova Scotia series examining how the province is managing its record-setting population boom after decades of limited growth.

As the Nova Scotia government works toward doubling the province's population to two million by 2060, one question is front of mind for many: where will people live?

Professionals from the construction and development industries say Nova Scotia isn't building enough housing quickly enough to meet current demand. They say conditions will need to shift dramatically for the province to accommodate continued population growth.

"That has to change," said Duncan Williams, president and CEO of the Construction Association of Nova Scotia. "We've set very aggressive immigration targets, which is wonderful, but we need places for them to live as well."

After decades of stagnant or decreasing population, Nova Scotia's population has swelled in the past few years. 

Driven largely by international immigration and people moving from other provinces, Nova Scotia has added nearly 111,000 new residents since 2015 — more than 10 per cent of the current population, which as of April 1, 2023, was 1,047,232.

But this increase in population has coincided with what provincial officials are calling a housing crisis. Vacancy rates are low, average rents are climbing, and homelessness is doubling in urban centres. 

According to data from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, in the past five years Nova Scotia's housing starts peaked in 2021 at 5,310 units that year, then declined to 4,877 units last year.

This number represents new construction of single family homes, semi-detached and row homes, and apartments. Williams believes this number needs to triple.

"If we're going to see a doubling of the population, based on current composition of households, we would need to be in that 15,000 to 16,000 units per year across the province," he said. "So it would be quite a stark contrast to where we are today."

Growth over the past year has been the fastest on record since 1951. And Nova Scotia's premier believes the province can keep it going. 

"We need more people. Our demographics are not great. So doubling the population, for me, is about right-sizing our demographics. It's about making the province younger," Premier Tim Houston told CBC News in a July interview.

The province estimates that more than a quarter of Nova Scotians will be aged 65 and over by 2030.

The provincial government has said continued growth will bring in more tax revenue, new businesses and jobs, improved infrastructure and greater diversity.