Hints of a military breakthrough for Ukraine overshadowed by concerns about the future

With hopes of a significant breakthrough by Ukrainian forces during their much-touted summer counter-offensive long dashed, the social media chatter this week out the southern Kherson region came as something of a surprise.

Slowly but surely, war-watchers from both sides confirmed that determined elements of Ukraine's 35th Marine Infantry brigade had managed to establish a modest but significant bridgehead on the left bank of the Dnipro River near the village of Krynky.

Not only was Ukraine able to reinforce the landing with fresh soldiers, unverified images posted on social media this week showed Ukrainian ferries loaded with heavy vehicles along with other amphibious vehicles coming ashore in the muddy area and taking up new positions.  

To be sure, the territorial gains appear modest — a few square kilometres at best and the Ukrainian forces have yet to breakout beyond the vicinity of the river — but the strategic significance may nonetheless be important.

A bridgehead on the left bank of the Dnipro, about 90 kilometres from Crimea, has been a long-sought Ukrainian military goal.  

The marshy land affords the Russians fewer defensive advantages than further north in Zaporizhzhia and opens up a possible new route for a Ukrainian advance toward the strategically important Crimean peninsula.

"I think it's significant because they have been struggling to do this for the entire counter-offensive," said Jade McGlynn, a research associate at the Department of War Studies at King's College London. 

"They've crossed it [the Dnipro] many times but [have] not been able to hold it, and that is a base where you can genuinely go to liberate parts of Kherson Oblast that are occupied."

There are indications that Russian commanders are worried enough that they have begun shifting troops south to defend against the new Ukrainian positions — but just how much tactical use Ukraine's military will be able to make of its new left bank positioning remains uncertain.

The bridgehead advance and river crossing comes at a time of intense reflection and re-assessment for Ukraine along with the Western nations that have supported it militarily since Russia's invasion in February 2021. 

In advance of this summer's expected counter-offensive, European nations and the United States provided Ukraine with approximately 100 Leopard 2 main battle tanks, several hundred armoured personnel carriers and other fighting vehicles, and hundreds of thousands of rounds of artillery ammunition.

But after failing to make what Ukraine's top battlefield commander referred to as a "deep and beautiful breakthrough" against Russian fortifications, the pivotal question now is how Ukraine can prevent the battlefield from grinding into an unwinnable stalemate.

Gen. Valery Zaluzhny kicked off the introspection with a highly unusual essay in The Economist magazine, where he bluntly laid out the additional Western help Ukraine needs to avoid losing.    

With its deeper reserves of soldiers and equipment and extreme tolerance for taking heavy casualties, a long war favours Russia, he wrote.