Here's what observers are watching for in Monday's four federal byelections

Four new MPs are set to be elected to the House of Commons Monday in a handful of byelections that political watchers say could expose rifts within the Conservative party and bring a new Liberal cabinet hopeful into the fold.

Four new MPs are set to be elected to the House of Commons Monday in a handful of byelections that political watchers say could expose rifts within the Conservative party and bring a new Liberal cabinet hopeful into the fold.

The Liberals are expected to hold onto seats in Winnipeg and Montreal, said Philippe J. Fournier, the polling analyst behind the 338 Canada polling aggregator website.

The Tories, meanwhile, are poised to hang on in rural Ontario and Manitoba seats, he said -- but their margins of victory in both ridings could be insightful for those looking to read the political tea leaves.

The closest thing to a nail-biter will likely occur in Oxford, a mostly rural riding in southern Ontario that has been a Conservative stronghold for nearly 20 years.

Party infighting has led to "the nastiest campaign that we've ever seen in our riding," said Dave MacKenzie, who announced he was stepping down from the seat in December.

"It's divided our party and our community," he said in an interview.

MacKenzie won in the 2021 federal election with nearly 47 per cent of the vote, a 27-point margin over the Liberal candidate.