Here are 3 potential outcomes of the Trump jury deliberations

A momentous event in American politics now rests on 12 jurors, the Manhattanites deciding the case of Donald Trump.

Those men and women, mostly white, most appearing to be in their 30s and 40s, will decide whether Trump becomes the first former U.S. president convicted of a crime.

Thursday marks their second day of deliberations on whether Trump committed felonies by falsifying business records to conceal a sex scandal. Here are three potential outcomes: 

A guilty verdict would uncork frantic weeks of speculation about whether Trump might be imprisoned in the middle of his attempted political comeback. A sentencing decision would likely land in just over a month, perhaps around or after the Republican convention.

Several veteran criminal lawyers contacted by CBC News deem a conviction probable based on their reading of the trial.

"It's pretty likely," said Mark Cohen, a longtime New York City criminal lawyer, as both a prosecutor and now a defence attorney.

Another former federal prosecutor, Eugene Rossi, even put odds to it: "I think there's a 75 to 80 per cent chance of a conviction," he said. 

Former state prosecutor Bennett Gershman says he's always expected a conviction, even moreso upon the strength of the prosecution's closing arguments.

To these analysts, the prosecution has proven the key facts: that Trump paid off a porn star to cover up their fling; that he participated in a coverup of the payments; and, crucially, that he did this to influence the 2016 election and intended to violate either election-spending or tax laws.

If the jury convicts, the judge would normally deliver his sentence in six to eight weeks. And on these charges, Justice Juan Merchan has a wide range of options.

It's a staggeringly vast gamut of potential penalties that run from less than a slap on the wrist, to a warning, to a minor punishment, to serious jail time.

Trump could receive anything from an unconditional discharge, meaning he's free without conditions; to probation, where he could have his travel limited or be forced to undergo community service; or face prison sentences of up to four years for each of the 34 counts. 

Few analysts expect prison time. The judge even scolded Trump's attorney for discussing jail in his closing argument as an improper attempt to sway the jury.

"[Prison is] highly unlikely," said New York criminal defence lawyer Julie Rendelman, noting Trump's age, his lack of a criminal record and the charges in this case being the lowest class of non-violent felony.