Harris still lags behind Biden’s 2020 margins among Black voters, but latest CNN poll suggests she has room to grow support

Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump by a wide margin among Black likely voters, according to a new CNN poll, but still falls short of Joe Biden’s winning 2020 margins.

Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump by a wide margin among Black likely voters, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS, but still falls short of Joe Biden’s winning 2020 margins with this group. Yet the poll suggests that Black likely voters currently supporting Trump or third-party candidates are not as locked into their choices as those Black likely voters who back the vice president. CNN’s latest poll finds Harris leading Trump by 63 points among Black likely voters, 79% to 16%. That’s a considerable improvement over Biden’s 46-point advantage over Trump among registered voters in CNN’s June poll, which was its last with the president at the top of the ticket. But that advantage falls short of the Biden-Harris campaign’s 75-point margin among Black voters, according to exit polls from 2020. Since Harris’ entrance into the race, enthusiasm among Black voters about the election appears to have grown. In the latest poll, 79% of Black registered voters say they would definitely vote, up from 68% in the June poll. For voters overall, that stood at 82% in the latest poll, about the same as in June. Black voters now are just as likely as other voters to say it is extremely important that they, personally, vote (both at 63%), while in June, Black registered voters were less likely to say the same (57% among Black voters, 66% overall). Harris’ improvement over Biden’s margins from earlier this year comes as the poll finds broad support for her from the 40% of Black likely voters who view Biden’s presidency as a failure – Harris leads Trump 65% to 31% among these voters. The poll suggests Trump’s improvements among Black voters relative to 2020 are driven largely by Black voters under the age of 60. Harris leads among Black voters aged 60 and over by 87 points, almost identical to Biden’s 85-point margin in 2020, according to exit polls for the same group. This shrinks to a 55-point lead for Harris among Black voters younger than 60 (Biden won this group by 71 points in 2020, according to exit polls). Trump performs best among Black likely voters younger than 40, with 22% support. Still, CNN’s poll suggests that Harris has the potential to improve her margins. Her supporters are broadly locked in and unlikely to shift in the race – 92% of Black likely voters who support Harris say their minds are already made up. But among those backing other candidates, a third say they may yet change their mind.