Hamilton had a historic drop in homicides in 2022. Police, researchers offer differing reasons

Between 2021 and 2022, there was a substantial drop in the number of homicides in Hamilton, according to police.

In 2021, there were 20 homicides, the highest number in almost 40 years. In 2022, there were five, the lowest number in roughly 30 years. 

Shane Grenier, Stanley Gordon Waite, Gord Lewis, Danielle Strauss and Everton Frost were all killed last year.

To give an idea of why last year's low homicide total is significant, between 1972 and 2022, the average number of homicides per year was 10 to 11, according to police data obtained by CBC Hamilton.

Hamilton police recently cited the low 2022 figure in its January presentation to council asking for more funding, but some analysts say crime rates fluctuate for a variety of reasons, independent from police work.

Det.-Sgt. Steve Bereziuk of the Hamilton Police Service said you can't point to one reason for the drop in homicides, but added that officers were able to "lock up some significant players that were causing a high level of violent crime in the city."

Bereziuk said that in 2021, there were a lot of "overlapping cases involving disputes between street gang factions."

He said it wasn't necessarily organized crime, but involved people who "behaved like gangs" and had an "eye for an eye mindset."

"Some of the homicides that we had were a direct response to a different murder," Bereziuk said.

"Those cases were solved, those accused were arrested and locked up, and hence, all of a sudden, the real nasty gunfire and murderous intent was reduced."

The clearance rate, the percentage of solved homicides, in 2021 was 90 per cent, basically on par with the average clearance rate over the last 50 years. 

Bereziuk also said there are other factors at play when it comes to the drop in homicides.

"The caveat is murders are unpredictable. If they'd be predictable, they'd be preventable," he told CBC Hamilton.

The city's police chief and one other detective sergeant have also commented on the drop in homicides.