Government-backed model to predict pandemic rise and ebb lacks foresight: Scientists

It may have had an outsized role in creating the perception that a catastrophic second wave is unlikely

With close to 4,00,000 cases being added every day, questions are being raised by a range of scientists on whether a government-backed model, called SUTRA, to forecast the rise and ebb of the coronavirus epidemic, may have had an outsized role in creating the perception that a catastrophic second wave of the pandemic was unlikely in India. An official connected with the COVID-19 management exercise said, on condition of anonymity, the SUTRA model input was “an important one, but not unique or determining”. The SUTRA group presented their views to Dr. VK Paul, who chaired a committee that got inputs from several modellers and sources. “The worst case predictions from this ensemble were used by the National Empowered Group on Vaccines and the groups headed by Dr. Paul to take measures. However, the surge was several times what any of the modellers had predicted.”