Good luck or good management, Alberta's latest budget is good politically for Jason Kenney
CBC
This column is an opinion from Ken Boessenkool, a professor at the Max Bell School of Public Policy at McGill University and a research fellow at the C.D. Howe Institute. For more information about CBC's Opinion section, please see the FAQ.
Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good — though the sweet spot is a bit of both.
Political leaders spend an inordinate amount of effort pinning bad luck and bad policy outcomes on their opponents, while simultaneously pinning good luck and good policy outcomes on themselves.
And the recent Alberta budget has delivered all the good luck and good policy outcomes Premier Jason Kenney could hope for. It is a welcome reversal that couldn't come at a more important time for him.
First, the luck.
Oil and gas prices have been rising. And as anyone with the remotest understanding of Alberta knows, this is good for the provincial budget.
And those rising oil prices driving Alberta's resource revenues skyward happened before the recent horrific geopolitical events in eastern Europe that will send those prices — and those revenues — even higher.
How much higher?
A University of Calgary economist points out that the budget contains the highest level of oil and gas royalties ever. Overall, Alberta is experiencing a 45 percent increase in provincial revenues from 2020 to 2022.
That's staggering.
And those projections are based on energy prices that are already out of date, and hence almost certainly conservative.
Alberta would have had a balanced budget at an average oil price of around $69 US per barrel. Current prices are just below $100 per barrel. And we haven't even started talking about natural gas prices, which are also rising.
All told, Kenney is benefiting from a triple whammy of good luck.
First, energy prices are rising, driving up provincial revenues.
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