Goldman Sachs slashes growth forecasts for Germany, UK and wider Europe on Trump win
CNN
President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed protectionist policies, including hefty tariffs, will hurt Europe’s economic standing — leaving crisis-hit Germany particularly vulnerable, Goldman Sachs predicts.
President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed protectionist policies, including hefty tariffs, will hurt Europe’s economic standing — leaving crisis-hit Germany particularly vulnerable, Goldman Sachs predicts. Following Trump’s re-election, the investment bank cut its growth forecasts for the region, predicting fresh trade tensions with the United States, pressure on Europe to increase defense spending and a hit to business confidence from higher geopolitical risk. Trump has repeatedly said America pays too much to defend its European allies, has questioned the role of NATO and suggested a quick resolution to Russia’s war in Ukraine, requiring less US spending. Goldman Sachs expects gross domestic product across the 20 countries that use the euro to expand 0.8% next year, down from the 1.1% it forecast previously. “Much of the growth drag would come from higher trade policy uncertainty… the actual magnitude of tariff increases might matter less than the uncertainty created by (Trump) threatening to impose tariffs on Europe,” analysts at the bank wrote in a note Wednesday. Europe’s open economy is seen as especially vulnerable to Trump’s protectionist agenda, with the Republican promising on the campaign trail to slap steep tariffs on all imported goods. Trump’s combative approach to trade relations also undermines the principles of open trade and competition that have powered global economic growth for decades and been a boon for one of the world’s largest trading blocs, the European Union.
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