Gaza ceasefire won’t last without political process, analysts warn

Israeli government has repeatedly sought to back out of truces, and this time could be no different, experts say.

Beirut, Lebanon – The ceasefire agreed by Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas has brought some optimism that Israel’s 15-month war on Gaza will finally end and Israeli captives and Palestinian prisoners will be released.

But there is still uncertainty from some analysts that the deal, announced on Wednesday and due to begin on Sunday, will go ahead as planned.

Israel’s security cabinet greenlit the agreement on Friday evening after postponing a meeting that was initially scheduled for Thursday. Still, the division of the deal into three phases opens up the potential for its terms to be violated or for the parties – particularly Israel – to backtrack on its terms, analysts said.

The deal stipulates that an initial 42-day phase – which is to see a handover of some captives and prisoners, an Israeli retreat from populated areas and an increase in aid – will be followed by additional phases in which more prisoner exchanges will happen as well as a permanent Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and a sustainable ceasefire.

Experts who spoke to Al Jazeera fear that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has resisted a ceasefire for months and insisted that Hamas must be destroyed, will resume hostilities after the captives are recovered to ostensibly “punish” the Palestinian group, buttress Israel’s security and ensure his own political survival while somehow blaming Hamas for the failure of the deal.