François Legault in enviable position as Quebec election campaign approaches
Global News
Political experts say there are a number of reasons for Legault's runaway lead, including his popularity among francophones and the fragmentation of the opposition.
François Legault’s win in the 2018 provincial election marked the start of a new era in Quebec politics, after nearly 50 years of federalist-versus-separatist two-party rule.
Four years later, Legault and his Coalition Avenir Québec are firmly in control, with polls suggesting he’ll cruise to a second majority victory on Oct. 3.
Experts offer a number of reasons to explain Legault’s runaway lead, including his popularity among francophones, the fragmentation of the opposition and the sustained visibility he obtained during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Most polls show Legault with support in the mid-40 per cent range — more than double that of his closest adversary, the Liberals. Days ahead of Sunday’s campaign launch, poll-aggregator website QC125.com pegged the probability of Legault’s party winning a majority government at more than 99 per cent.
Valerie-Anne Maheo, an assistant professor of political science at Université Laval, said the election comes after more than two years of a pandemic during which Legault was “omnipresent.”
“He was there every day giving news conferences; we saw him all the time, and he governed by decree because of the health emergency,” she said in a recent phone interview. Opposition parties — most of which had new leaders –struggled for visibility because debate in the legislature on most issues regarding the pandemic was suspended, she added.
But Legault’s rise and continued strength cannot be solely attributed to circumstance, she said.
The outgoing Quebec premier, Maheo said, has been able to capitalize on a new political landscape that began shifting even before his party was formed in 2011. For nearly 50 years, Quebec politics was defined by two competing visions: sovereignty, helmed by the Parti Québécois, and federalism, championed by the Liberal Party of Quebec.