Fox News Power Rankings: Dems, GOP locked in close battle as final month of campaigning begins

Republicans are catching voters' attention by focusing on inflation; however, three House races are shifting toward the Democrats, with the GOP gaining two.

Republicans are still poised to win the House. The latest forecast expects the GOP to win 231 seats, while Democrats will take the remaining 204. That means 14 seats of breathing room for the GOP. On the Senate side, neither party has a clear majority. The Republicans have 49 seats in their columns, and the Democrats have 47. Toss up races in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania will determine control. Both parties are fighting for every vote in these states, and this forecast does not see enough evidence to shift any of them just yet. Rémy Numa is the lead political affairs specialist for Fox News Channel. You can follow him on Twitter: @remynuma.

If those numbers sound familiar, it’s because they are the same as the Power Rankings forecast in September. There are signs, however, that the national environment is shifting in the Republican Party’s favor. The GOP has gained about a point on the generic ballot question since the last forecast, as inflation remains the dominant issue. That leaves both parties tied. There is troubling news for Democrats inside recent polls too. Independent voters often decide close elections, and they are worried about the economy. In last week’s Monmouth University poll, 61% of independents said economic issues were more important to their vote this year, compared to 29% who say they were more concerned about rights and democracy. Inflation voters consistently favor the GOP in polls, so the more concerned that voters are about rising costs, the more Democrats who will fall on election night.