Federal panel lists 35 'plausible' future threats to Canada and the world

In a new report, a think-tank within Employment and Social Development Canada cites 35 "plausible" global disruptions that could reshape Canada and the world in the near future.

The Policy Horizons Canada (PHC) panel drafted the list and then asked more than 500 stakeholders within and outside government to suggest which ones were more likely, when they might happen and how one might trigger others.

The authors of the report point out that the list is an exploration of theoretical — not guaranteed — threats. They say that even "seemingly distant or improbable" calamities can become reality and thinking about them helps governments create "robust and resilient policies."

Leading the report's top ten list — those threats that could have the greatest impacts and are most likely to happen — is the threat to truth.

PHC's report says that in as little as three years, the world's "information ecosystem" could be flooded with misinformation and disinformation created by both people and artificial intelligence (AI).

It warns that algorithms designed to engage audiences emotionally rather than factually could "increase distrust and social fragmentation," isolating people in "separate realities shaped by their personal media …"

"Public decision making could be compromised as institutions struggle to effectively communicate key messaging on education, public health, research and government information," the report says.

The second and third threats on the top ten list are environmental: ecosystem collapse due to loss of biodiversity and extreme weather events overwhelming our ability to respond.

In five to six years, the report says, a collapse in biodiversity "could have cascading impacts on all living things, putting basic human needs such as clean air, water and food in jeopardy."

It says that impacts on key industries like farming, fishing and logging could lead to "major economic loss," leaving people unable to "meet their basic needs."

The report warns the increasing frequency of wildfires, floods and severe storms could destroy property and infrastructure, displacing millions of people and worsening the mental health crisis.

In as little as four to five years, cyber attacks could disable critical infrastructure and billionaires could use their influence to run the world, the PHC warns.

The report says that cyber attacks on critical infrastructure could leave governments struggling to deliver services and compromise access to essential goods.

And in five years, the report says, the super-rich could use their influence to shape public policy and impose their values and beliefs on the world, "bypassing democratic governance principles."