Federal election 2025: Where change may come in Manitoba

Sometime very soon, most likely in the middle of the spring, Canadians will be heading into another federal election.

The resignation of Justin Trudeau and the prorogation of parliament sets up the fall of the Liberal government as soon as late March, which in turn would trigger an election in early to mid-May.

With only 14 seats, Manitoba will not determine much on the national scale. But every party has something at stake in this province.

For Pierre Poilievre's Conservative Party, which is poised to win its first majority in Canada since election night in 2011, success in Manitoba this spring will mean adding two or three seats to the existing seven the party controls here.

For the Liberals, who will be led by someone new in the next election, this is a save-the-furniture contest where the party will be content to hold on to as many seats as possible. Success in Manitoba for the Liberals this year means holding on to one or two of its four seats.

For the New Democrats, success in this province will mean holding on to all three of its existing Manitoba seats and at least being competitive in Winnipeg North.

Here are the Manitoba seats most and least likely to change hands this year:

Winnipeg South: More than any other Manitoba riding, Winnipeg South is a perfect bellwether. Starting in 1988, when this riding assumed its modern form, the party that won the most seats on election night also won this seat. 

Right now, Poilievre's Conservatives are riding very high in the polls and are expected to form the next government. That spells trouble for incumbent Liberal MP Terry Duguid, who was named to cabinet weeks before Trudeau announced his intention to resign as Liberal leader and prime minister.

While the Conservatives have yet to nominate a candidate in Winnipeg South, anyone who ends up with the blue lawn signs in the riding this spring must be considered a strong contender.

Saint Boniface-Saint Vital: This southeast Winnipeg seat is also something of a bellwether riding but is far less fickle than Winnipeg South when it comes to flipping back and forth between the Liberals and conservative parties.

On two occasions since 1988, a Liberal has won here, even though the party did not form a government. The prospects of that happening this year are dimmer due to the impending retirement of MP Dan Vandal, who has represented the riding since 2015.

As in Winnipeg South, the eventual Conservative candidate will have a good chance of winning.

Elmwood-East Kildonan: On paper, Winnipeg's easternmost riding ought to be an NDP stronghold. The New Democrats have won this riding in all but one election since it was formed in 1988.