Fallout from Brian Jean's byelection victory will be messy for Kenney, political scientists say
CBC
A looming battle between Premier Jason Kenney and newly-elected MLA Brian Jean will sow further divisions within Alberta's deeply divided reigning political party, political scientists say.
Jean's win Tuesday in the Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche byelection is only the first blow to Kenney in what will be an ugly battle for leadership of the United Conservative Party, said Mount Royal University political scientist Lori Williams.
The former Wildrose Party leader's return to the legislature will deepen existing fault lines with the United Conservative Party and embolden Kenney's opponents, Williams said Wednesday.
With a leadership review set for April 9 in Red Deer, Kenney is playing a losing game, she said.
"The people that oppose Jason Kenney are not going to give up, even if they can't successfully challenge him from within," Williams said.
"For the people that are really strongly opposed — the ones that are angry — they're just going to keep trying either to get Jason Kenney out as leader or split from the party."
Jean easily won the byelection Tuesday. With all polls reporting, 63.6 per cent of voters chose the UCP candidate over his challengers.
Kenney congratulated Jean on Twitter Tuesday but has not made any other comments about his rival's byelection win.
The vote was a lose-lose situation for the premier, said Lisa Young, a political scientist at the University of Calgary.
"There was really no good outcome for Jason Kenney," Young said. "Now his greatest enemy is in his own caucus.
"But if the NDP had won, it would have been seen as a huge sign that his party was in trouble and that would have hurt him in the upcoming leadership review."
For Jean, the campaign was always a means to oust Kenney.
Jean and Kenney founded the UCP together in 2017 as a merger of the Wildrose Party and the Progressive Association of Alberta, but Jean lost the leadership to Kenney in a vote stained by accusations of secret deals, colluding candidates and fraud.
Jean eventually quit as an MLA, but announced in November he was coming out of political retirement.
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