Expected to hit 2030 climate target, N.W.T. considers more ambitious goal

The N.W.T. government is considering setting more ambitious climate targets, acknowledging a lot of things have changed since it initially set the goals in 2018. 

"We committed to reviewing or revisiting our approach to energy and climate after five years," said Ben Israel, the territory's senior coordinator on energy. "That's the first reason why we started this conversation." 

The territory's current goal is to reduce emissions by 30 per cent of 2005 levels in the next seven years — a target it's likely to hit, said Israel, because of an economic slow down in the mining industry. 

The territory needs to reduce emissions by 193 kilotonnes in order to hit the 2030 goal. Though current policies are projected to reduce emissions by 51 kilotonnes by 2025, it looks like the expected closure of Rio Tinto's Diavik diamond mine in early 2026 will do a lot of the leg work. The mine emitted about 200 kilotonnes of greenhouse gas emissions per year in 2019 and 2020. 

"Is this how we want to meet the target?" wondered Israel. "I'm not sure."

The territory commissioned a study earlier this year, first reported by Cabin Radio, that examines four different emission scenarios: one with no new targets, one that achieves the current 2030 target and also strives for becoming net zero by 2050, and another that adopts the federal government's target of reducing emissions by 40 or 45 per cent in 2030 and becoming net zero by 2050. 

(If the world reaches net zero by 2050, it could limit warming to 1.5 C — a threshold set out in the 2015 Paris Agreement and subsequent climate accords to limit the most catastrophic impacts of climate change.)

One option also explored setting targets that didn't include the mining and oil and gas sectors. 

Israel said his department had been looking at what other provinces and territories were doing, and saw the Yukon had set separate industry targets in an effort to balance the need to reduce emissions and maintain the mining industry. 

Industry accounts for 34 per cent of the N.W.T.'s greenhouse gas emissions, while transportation accounts for 47 per cent, according to the latest inventory report prepared by Environment and Climate Change Canada. 

It will be up to the next Legislative Assembly to decide which target to pursue. 

Lynne Couves, a program director with the Pembina Institute, a renewable energy think tank, said setting targets is important because they help guide policy development and can hold governments and industries accountable for the work they are — or aren't — doing. 

She said the N.W.T. needs to align itself with the federal government's goal of lowering emissions by 40 to 45 per cent by 2030, and reaching net zero in the following twenty years. 

"I think it's important that goals are ambitious. This gives something for all industries in the territory to work toward," she said. "2050 seems like a long ways away, but it is an important one to factor in for long-term planning."