
Ex-Fed insider: A full-blown recession is 'almost certainly' coming
CNN
The Federal Reserve's war on inflation will eventually kill the economic recovery from Covid-19, former Fed official Bill Dudley warns.
The problem is that the Fed began its quest to tame inflation late, leaving the central bank little choice other than to slam the brakes on the economy by drastically raising interest rates.
"Almost certainly there will be a full-blown recession. If we're not in one yet, I think we will be in the next 12 months," Dudley, the former president of the New York Federal Reserve, told CNN in a phone interview.

Trump’s major gamble on China continues to pay off, with Chinese negotiators willing to make some concessions. Trump has maintained very high tariffs on America’s second-biggest trading partner without tipping the economy into recession. But Xi holds trump cards – including a long-sought meeting and rare earths – that exercise plenty of leverage over Trump, too.

The next batch of inflation data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics was already shaping up to be a high-profile affair due to the expected impact of President Donald Trump’s hefty tariffs. But after Trump fired the agency’s top statistician, Tuesday’s report now comes with some other, unexpected baggage.

The United States and China agreed to pause tariff hikes on each other’s goods for an additional 90 days, according to multiple reports citing White House officials. Without the agreement, tariffs were set to immediately surge, risking a return to ultra-high levels that had formed an effective blockade on trade between the world’s two largest economies.