Energy transition will be challenging in era of public protests, regulatory hurdles

From carbon capture and hydrogen development to the accelerated rollout of wind and solar power and rapid electrification of transportation systems, the federal government has laid out an ambitious roadmap to get Canada to its climate target of cutting emissions by 40 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030, and net-zero emissions by 2050.

But overhauling this country's entire energy infrastructure in a short amount of time represents an unprecedented technical challenge that will cost hundreds of billions of dollars, experts say.

And pessimists are quick to point out that Canada doesn't have a good recent track record when it comes to getting ambitious, expensive infrastructure projects over the finish line.

In Alberta in particular — where the ghosts of cancelled pipeline projects still haunt the public consciousness — some observers believe this country has lost the political will and spirit of national unity that's required to get big things done.

"We've spent a decade making building anything extremely difficult, if not impossible," said Calgary-based energy analyst, oil services sector executive and consultant David Yager.

"Canada's recent history suggests these [net-zero] targets are aspirational, to say the least."

Yager points to Enbridge Inc.'s proposed Northern Gateway pipeline, which was quashed by the federal Liberals in 2016.

In 2017, the proposed $15.7-billion Energy East project was cancelled by TransCanada after being bogged down by regulatory delays, new environmental criteria, and opposition to the line along major sections of the proposed route.

Then in 2021, TC Energy's proposed Keystone XL pipeline project was cancelled by U.S. president Joe Biden — the culmination of a decade-plus battle that had pitted the energy industry against environmentalists opposed to the project.

There are many other high-profile examples of troubled Canadian energy projects, from the Coastal GasLink pipeline — the construction of which led to rail blockades across the country by Indigenous opponents of the project and their supporters — to Pacific Northwest LNG, a proposed liquefied natural gas terminal in Prince Rupert, B.C., which was scrapped by Malaysia's Petronas and partners in 2017 in part because of concerns raised by local Indigenous groups about the project's impact on salmon spawning grounds in the area.

While the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion is going ahead, the costs of that project have ballooned to $21.4 billion after being bought by the federal government for $4.5 billion in 2018.

Trans Mountain has been dogged by increased security costs, route changes to avoid culturally and environmentally sensitive areas, and scheduling delays related to permitting processes, among other issues.

Opponents of these projects say the cancellations and delays show the need to end reliance on the fossil fuel industry and move toward greener energy production.

But it isn't just oil and gas projects that are becoming increasingly difficult to build these days, Yager said. In Ontario, wind farm projects have been cancelled because they pose threats to bat populations.