Economists predict inflation dipped below 2% in September

Economists expect inflation continued its downward trend last month, giving the Bank of Canada the all-clear to continue cutting its benchmark interest rate.

Economists expect inflation continued its downward trend last month, giving the Bank of Canada the all-clear to continue cutting its benchmark interest rate.

“We are looking for headline inflation to cool below the bank’s two-per-cent target in September,” said BMO economist Shelly Kaushik.

Kaushik said she expects annual headline inflation cooled to 1.8 per cent, largely thanks to lower gas prices last month, but added that as pump prices rose in October, the headline number could tick higher in the following report.

The latest report on consumer price growth is set to be released Tuesday, and is the last big economic report before the Bank of Canada’s next interest rate decision on Oct. 23.

TD Bank senior economist James Orlando said he sees headline inflation slowing to 1.9 per cent in September, with core measures of inflation remaining above two per cent.

“Now that we’re back at target, it’s more like, well, how do we stick around here?” he said.

In August, inflation hit the Bank of Canada’s two-per-cent target, falling from 2.5 per cent year-over-year in July to reach its lowest level since February 2021. Lower gasoline prices underpinned the decline.