Early lab tests suggest new COVID-19 variant BA.2.86 may be less contagious and less immune-evasive than feared

Scientists around the world are fast-tracking lab experiments to try to understand the highly mutated BA.2.86 variant of the virus that causes COVID-19. Results just beginning to emerge are offering some reassurance, experts say.

Scientists around the world are fast-tracking lab experiments to try to understand the highly mutated BA.2.86 variant of the virus that causes COVID-19. Results just beginning to emerge are offering some reassurance, experts say.

Two groups — one in China and one in Sweden — have publicly reported results, and more are expected as early as Monday from the United States. So far, early results paint BA.2.86 as more of a paper tiger rather than the looming beast it first appeared to be, although that impression could change as more results come in.

BA.2.86, also known by the nickname Pirola, captured the world’s attention because it looks radically different than any other variants of the coronavirus that we’ve seen so far.

This new lineage has more than 30 changes to its spike protein compared with both its next closest ancestor, BA.2, and compared with the recently circulating XBB.1.5 lineage. It was an evolutionary leap on par with the one the original Omicron variant, BA.1, made when it first appeared almost two years ago — and everyone remembers how that went down.

During the Omicron wave, infections and hospitalizations hit their highest points of the pandemic in the United States. Weekly deaths reached their second-highest peak, a lesson in how even a tamer version of the virus can be a serious threat if it causes a tidal wave of infection across the population. The vaccines had to be updated.

Omicron quickly overtook other COVID-19 variants and began creating its own offshoots — viruses that we’re still dealing with. It became a lesson in how agile the virus can be and how fragile our defences are in the face of such large shifts.

The White House was worried enough about another Omicron-level event that it quietly polled about a dozen experts earlier this year about the chances the world would see one within the next two years. Most experts pegged the possibility between 10 and 20%.