Dwindling demand for COVID-19 boosters puts price hikes on table

A recent poll by Kaiser Family Foundation found that two-thirds of American adults do not plan on getting a COVID-19 vaccine soon.

With most Americans delaying or skipping new COVID-19 booster shots, analysts and investors are now predicting far fewer will be given each year, pushing the number of shots well below annual flu vaccinations.

With fewer shots needed, vaccine makers including Pfizer Inc., partner BioNTech, rival Moderna Inc. and Novavax Inc. could have to hike prices as much as three times current levels if they hope to meet Wall Street revenue forecasts for the shots for 2023 and beyond, several analysts said.

Last year, many on Wall Street were estimating the number of COVID-19 shots would be in line with the annual flu vaccine, which is the vaccine market leader with more than 160 million shots per year in the United States and 600 million shots globally.

Now the slowing pace of the early COVID revaccination campaigns – particularly in the key U.S. market – is changing that view. A recent poll by Kaiser Family Foundation found that two-thirds of American adults do not plan on getting a COVID vaccine soon. Analysts are expecting the U.S. market to be as low as one-third the size of the flu.

“The fact that you have people saying the pandemic is over doesn’t motivate people to get vaccinated,” said Dr. Bruce Farber, chief of public health and epidemiology for New York hospital system Northwell Health.

He added that instances of COVID infections in those who have been vaccinated has left many to question the effectiveness of the vaccine.

Healthcare investor Bijan Salehizadeh with Navimed Capital, previously thought demand would likely mirror that of the flu, but now believes it will be much smaller without significant evidence that updated shots are better.

“The average person is not going to jump to get it” without signs of improved efficacy, he said.