Dire financial straits for OC Transpo could spell the end for Stage 3 LRT

Ottawa Mayor Mark Sutcliffe says OC Transpo is facing a "worsening financial situation" that is worse than he imagined when he decided to run for mayor.

Ottawa Mayor Mark Sutcliffe says OC Transpo is facing a "worsening financial situation" that is worse than he imagined when he decided to run for mayor.

Sutcliffe ran on a platform of fixing public transit in Ottawa, after numerous issues on the LRT and flagging ridership because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

City councillors received a technical briefing on the transit system's long-term plan on Monday, which projected a dire outlook of $6.6 billion in budgetary pressures over the next 25 years, more than half of which is linked to lower ridership.

It also means the future of Stage 3 of LRT to Kanata, Barrhaven and Stittsville could be in jeopardy, though Sutcliffe says he believes it will eventually be built.

Councillors heard that the financial case for Stage 3 is not strong. First, it is unaffordable for the city, and would need to be funded 100 per cent by senior levels of government, who have not committed any funding to it. Second, Stage 3 would cost an estimated $64 million per year to operate, with only an expected 2 per cent increase in ridership, bringing in around $5 million annually. Savings from replacing bus routes would also be minimal, staff said.

Construction on Stage 3 was set to begin once Stage 2—which is delayed—was complete, but staff said Monday that the city could delay Stage 3 until the financial situation stabilizes, only build parts of it—such as only connecting to Kanata or only to Barrhaven—or scrap it all together and run bus rapid transit instead.

Speaking to reporters after the technical briefing, Sutcliffe said Stage 3 remains an important part of the city's long-term transit plan.