Diplomacy Over Ukraine War Is About Weapons More Than Peace Talks

For both Ukraine and Russia, battlefield gains now might provide an upper hand in any negotiations later. That’s reflected in their discussions over arms with allies.

President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine has called for a new peace summit in November, one open to participation by Russia. American and European officials privately wonder whether the Ukrainian and Russian militaries are so exhausted that they will pause fighting. And Western diplomats are discussing what kind of defense alliance their nations could promise Ukraine to help reach a settlement, officials say.

That kind of background chatter would seem to indicate a greater willingness by Ukraine and its allies to eventually engage in peace talks with Russia. But the most urgent diplomacy taking place now — and discussed with intensity this week in Kyiv, Washington and London — is about shaping the battlefield in Ukraine’s favor.

Ukrainian and Western officials say President Vladimir V. Putin still shows no signs of being willing to engage in peace talks in good faith. American and European officials, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomacy, have made clear over the last week that they are operating on the idea that Ukraine must consolidate and expand its gains on the battlefield in order to prod Mr. Putin toward the negotiating table — and to have meaningful leverage if talks start.

The discussions have been energized by the Ukrainian military’s occupation of Russian territory in Kursk, an assault that surprised both Russia and Ukraine’s partners after it began last month.

Ukraine has also intensified strikes against some Russian oil production facilities, hitting at the lifeblood of its enemy’s economy. And it has largely neutralized Russia’s Black Sea naval fleet.

Diplomatic discussions this week have focused on whether the United States, Britain and France should give Ukraine permission to use long-range missiles they have provided to strike deep into Russia. Right now, those countries only allow Ukraine to hit military targets just over the Russian border.