Demand for battery minerals is increasing — how can we keep up?
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Electric vehicles are more popular than ever, and widespread adoption of them is a key part of global plans to decarbonize the transportation sector.
But the batteries powering these vehicles require a variety of critical minerals — like lithium, cobalt, manganese and nickel — which has some experts concerned about runaway demand.
"Can the supply match the demand or not? If we cannot match the demand, that means we are going to face some bottlenecks," said Fengqi You, a professor in the department of engineering at Cornell University in Ithaca, N.Y.
You authored a recent study that predicts demand for lithium could rise by roughly 3,000 to 7,000 per cent by 2050, while demand for nickel, cobalt and manganese could also increase by thousands of per cent. Making sure we don't run into supply constraints with these minerals is a key challenge, You warns, and will require careful thought.
His recommendation: prioritize the electrification of certain types of transportation over others.
The Cornell researcher found that heavy-duty vehicles — like buses, semis and large passenger trucks — would account for more than 60 per cent of critical mineral demands, while only accounting for four to 11 per cent of the road fleet and roughly 30 per cent of total transportation emissions.
In other words, it may not be an efficient use of resources to put batteries in heavy-duty vehicles, given that the electrification of light- and medium-duty vehicles would reduce more emissions overall while using fewer mineral resources.
Adam Thorn, director of the transportation program at the Pembina Institute, a Canadian energy think-tank, expects these constraints to ease as countries continue to develop extraction, manufacturing and recycling systems. But he notes the short-term supply crunch may affect our ability to make a rapid transition to EVs.
"What is quite different and distinct about this mode of transportation that we're shifting to is that it's material-intensive," said Thorn. "We know that it's going to require significant amounts of critical minerals."
Thorn says different vehicles may require different decarbonization solutions — especially in the diverse heavy-duty vehicle sector.
"There are lots of ways that we can decarbonize without just a one-to-one transition from an internal combustion engine to an electric vehicle," Thorn said.
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