David Marcus: Don't put a fork in the California recall
Fox News
Over the past few days many in the media have begun a Gov. Gavin Newsom victory lap, secure that the new math shows he will survive the recall effort against him. I say, not so fast.
Over at the website 538 where data are king, they think Newsom is likely to prevail, but also have this to say, "This is a particularly challenging race to poll accurately because it’s hard to estimate who’s likely to vote." Adding "In other words, don’t be surprised if there’s a larger-than-usual polling error. There are a lot of factors here, it’s a strangely timed special election, it’s mostly done with mail in voting, and there could be a natural enthusiasm advantage for the pro recall side, given that they were the ones who initiated the election in the first place. All of these wildcards have the potential to upset polling.
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