CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey: Social coalitions shaped the verdict in Karnataka Premium

The social coalitions that the NDA and Congress stitched together impacted their performance in Karnataka

Karnataka was a key battleground-State. It was a vital State for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which was trying to expand it reach south of the Vindhyas. The importance of Karnataka was seen in the alliance that the BJP stitched up with the Janata Dal (Secular) before the elections. For the Congress, this election was a survival battle. The verdict in the State left no outstanding winner or devastated loser. The BJP experienced a fall in seat share, but stayed above the majority mark. The Congress got a little over one-third of the seats. The Lokniti-CSDS post-poll survey indicates a few visible trends in the Karnataka verdict.

Close to two-third (62%) of the respondents were satisfied with the Central government’s performance. Among them, one-third (32%) were quite satisfied with the Central government. Another one-third were dissatisfied. The endorsement of the Central government was not overwhelming but just above average. These numbers are in consonance with the support for the BJP-led alliance and the Congress.

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The election campaign in Karnataka seems to have made a difference. In the post-poll survey, one-third of the respondents decided their vote on the day of the poll or a few days earlier. Merely one-fourth of the respondents decided their vote before the declaration of candidates.

The BJP continued to do well among the upper middle class and the rich. The Congress saw greater support among the lower middle class. The votes of the poor were equally divided between the two parties.

The Congress secured more than half the votes of women. There was a 10% point lead over the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) among women voters. The impact of the party’s guarantees is evident as is the Prajwal Revanna abuse case, especially during phase two of voting. Though the JD(S) had no candidate in this phase, the impact of the controversy seems evident.

Among men, the NDA had a 10% point lead over the Congress. The BJP performed better among the younger voters while the Congress performed better among the older voters.