COVID-related hospitalizations at a low point but BA.2 subvariant is driving new infections: modelling
CBC
New federal modelling released today suggests there will be an increase in COVID-19 cases in the coming weeks because the much more infectious BA.2 subvariant is circulating widely.
While the number of cases is expected to rise, Canada's chief public health officer said the national response to this sort of increase in disease activity will be different now than it has been in the past.
"We are now in a period of transition, and we anticipate that progress will not be linear and that there will likely be more bumps along the way, including resurgence in cases this spring," said Dr. Theresa Tam.
"However, with higher levels of population immunity, proven protective practices to slow the spread and reduced pressure on the health system, we are in a stronger position to get back to more of the things we love, while continuing to keep each other safer."
Elevated case counts were not unexpected, Tam said, given the federal government and the provinces and territories have been dismantling COVID-19 restrictions and pushing ahead with a lighter touch on public health measures to curb new infections.
Tam said Friday the number of COVID-related hospitalizations and deaths is at a low point, thanks to strong vaccine coverage and natural immunity from past infection.
Since January, the number of people in hospital with the novel coronavirus has dropped by half, to roughly 5,000 people nationally on any given day. The number of daily deaths reported is also about half of what it was just two months ago with well under 50 deaths reported nationwide each day.
That could change in the coming weeks, Tam said, because there has been an uptick in case counts because of BA.2, an Omicron offshoot.
As she presented the modelling data, Tam said "disease activity remains elevated and is rising in some parts of the country" and "hospitalization trends could rise" as a result.
WATCH: Tam discusses reasons for the resurgence of COVID-19 in parts of Canada
Early research suggests BA.2 is five to seven times more transmissible than the original COVID-19 strain first detected in Wuhan, China, or roughly two times more transmissible than the Delta variant, which first hit in late 2020 and early 2021.
While BA.2 will result in more severe cases reported, Tam said the impact on the health care system is expected to be more "manageable" than with previous waves.
Tam said that moving forward, the likely scenario is that Canada will experience "low to moderate ongoing virus transmission" with "intermittent" waves driven by new variants and reduced immunity — a more "predictable" pattern that likely can be handled without restrictive public health measures.
However, the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) is also preparing for a "worst-case scenario" in which a new, much more vaccine-resistant variant emerges that causes widespread severe disease.
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