COVID-19 wave is unlikely this time around, say experts

Experts say Karnataka unlikely to see another wave of COVID-19 cases, but urge caution & higher testing.

While there has been a ten-fold rise in the number of COVID-19 cases in the last ten days in Karnataka, a wave is unlikely, say experts.

TAC member Rajath Athreya said, “Going by the global trajectory, we are unlikely to see another wave. However, we will have to wait and watch for the next few weeks after New Year to understand the intensity of the surge,” said Dr. Athreya, who is also a Senior Consultant and Head of the Department of Paediatrics and Neonatology at Sakra World.

Pointing out that this surge cannot be termed as a “wave” unless there is a sharp rise in hospitalisations and deaths overwhelming the healthcare system, Dr. Athreya said the number of cases was expected to go up with higher number of COVID-19 tests. 

“With higher testing, we are expecting the new infections to rise further,” he said. “This is because, in the past few months, we were not testing SARI and ILI cases. The testing strategy, as of now, is to test only symptomatic SARI/ILI patients. Also, we are not doing contact screening or quarantine-based testing for those with a travel history. Once we start doing all these, there is a high likelihood that the test positivity rate (TPR) will shoot up.”

“Initially, we expect to see the surge in Bengaluru followed by semi-urban areas and then probably to the districts,” he said.

Virologist V. Ravi, who is a former TAC member and nodal officer for genomic confirmation of SARS-CoV-2 in Karnataka, said people need not press the panic button just yet, but have to stay cautious.

“We have entered a phase of endemicity where people have varying immunity to the virus by infections, exposures and vaccination. The JN.1 variant has immune escape properties due to the mutation and is highly infectious. The mutation helps it to spread faster, and infection can be caused even with a short exposure. The elderly, immunocompromised and those with comorbidities should follow precautions,” Dr. Ravi said.