Conservatives leading in P.E.I., federal poll suggests

New poll results from Narrative Research suggest the Conservatives Party of Canada is ahead in all four Atlantic provinces, although that lead in Prince Edward Island over the federal Liberals is within the margin of error. 

The telephone poll included 300 Islanders contacted between July 31 and Aug. 18. Among the 179 who expressed a party preference, 41 per cent of decided voters supported the Conservatives, compared to 35 per cent for the Liberal Party. The Greens found support from 13 per cent, and the NDP 10 per cent.

There was a high margin of error, within 7.3 percentage points, in the decided voter numbers due to the large number of undecided — those who refused to provide an answer or said they did not plan to vote.

Overall, one in four was undecided. Eight per cent would not provide a response, and another eight per cent said they didn't plan to vote.

It has been decades since the Tories have had significant federal electoral success on P.E.I. In 1988, the Liberals swept all four Island seats. In the 10 elections since the Conservatives have won just twice, with Gail Shea taking the Egmont riding in the 2008 and 2011 elections.

The poll found Islanders are displeased with the government of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

"Dissatisfaction with the performance of the federal government has reached the highest level recorded in Atlantic Canada since Trudeau's government first came to power in 2015," said Narrative CEO Margaret Brigley in a news release.

"Across the region, this growing dissatisfaction has translated into increasing support for the Conservative Party, both in terms of voting intentions and for a clear preference for its leader as Prime Minister."

Fifty-nine per cent of those polled said they were mostly or completely dissatisfied with the federal government's performance. 

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre did not score as highly as his party when Islanders were asked who their top pick for prime minister was.

Poilievre did lead the list as the top choice of 32 per cent of those polled. Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau was the pick of 19 per cent, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh got 15 per cent, and Green Leader Elizabeth May had 14 per cent.

With all 300 responding to the questions of government satisfaction and prime minister choice, the margin of error for those sections was within 5.7 percentage points.

The poll covered Atlantic Canada, and found support for the two major parties and dissatisfaction with the government was similar across the region.

A spokesperson for Narrative Research said the company regularly collects information on federal voting intentions, but that information is not normally shared with the public and is reserved for those with paid subscriptions to the company's data.